Below is a market forecast from our trade desk here at LTI.
Coming into the second trading week of the new year, we expect liquidity across markets to be back to normal. Although last week’s price action for me has been horrendous, currencies largely ignored correlations and were putting it down to a lack of liquidity. The market needs to find a consensus. For us, we still continue to like the long AUD trade, as overnight headlines last week about a possible rollback of the Chinese coal import ban, support this.
We also look to add on our EUR/GBP longs, which make sense as the reduction in wholesale energy prices could allow the UK government to shelve a planned bill hike in April. Ultimately, I think the main driving forces for the FX market still remain around a FED pause and a China reopening for Q1. USD/JPY remains at the top of my pairing preferences, but personally not interested in where it’s currently trading, at the moment. We’re also looking at playing a potential long-to-sell setup when it comes to the USD. On the JPY side, this trade for me has to be supported by a normalised policy outlook and lower global yields.
We are also planning on playing the concerns around the Canadian economy as the BoC potentially overtightens. But with the view of being long Yen continues to make the trade attractive. I can only really get involved once taking the highs at 99.300.
All at LTI wish you a fantastic year full of good health.